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Tournament winner EURO 2012

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  • Created by: Semin Ibisevic
  • Latest result: Plot created
  • Created on: 03 Jun 2012

This plot shows the probability of a country winning the European Championship Football 2012 (EURO2012) in Ukraine and Poland. The probabilities are a function of the odds on sports betting websites.

In this plot, only the (initial) strongest 8 countries are included.

Update June 20 (Start of knockout stage): From the plot we can observe that the performance of the countries Spain (SP), Germany (DE), England (EN), France (FR) and to some extent Italy (IT), remained consistent with the public expectations. The Netherlands (NL) is the big outlier in this tournament, yielding that the majority of the public overestimated the performance of the team. Another interesting country is Portugal (PT) which has currently deserved a relatively high place in the plot, as opposed to the beginning of the tournament. For the speculators among us, this may be an indication that the team is currently being overestimated (see for instance the course of Russia (RU) in the plot, starting low and then moving to a high level after a 'structural break'; hence being knocked out of the tournament).

Plot Image
% time1716 and data1716 available for use
% for Odds for Spain to win EURO 2012
%
% time1717 and data1717 available for use
% for Odds for Germany to win EURO 2012
%
% time1718 and data1718 available for use
% for Odds for The Netherlands to win EURO 2012
% 
% time1719 and data1719 available for use
% for Odds for France to win EURO 2012
% 
% time1720 and data1720 available for use
% for Odds for England to win EURO 2012
%
% time1721 and data1721 available for use
% for Odds for Portugal to win EURO 2012
% 
% time1722 and data1722 available for use
% for Odds for Italy to win EURO 2012
%
% time1723 and data1723 available for use
% for Odds for Russia to win EURO 2012

% 16...23

T = size(time1716,1);
startDate = time1716(1);
endDate = time1716(T);
xData = linspace(startDate, endDate, T )';



% define odds
uBound = 100;

% max
y1 = data1716;	T1 = size(data1716,1);
y2 = data1717;	T2 = size(data1717,1);
y3 = data1718;	T3 = size(data1718,1);
y4 = data1719;	T4 = size(data1719,1);
y5 = data1720;	T5 = size(data1720,1);
y6 = data1721;	T6 = size(data1721,1);
y7 = data1722;	T7 = size(data1722,1);
y8 = data1723;	T8 = size(data1723,1);

Tt = [T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6, T7, T8];
[Ttmax, Ttn] = max(Tt);

odds = zeros(Ttmax,8);
odds(1:T1,1) = y1;
odds(1:T2,2) = y2;
odds(1:T3,3) = y3;
odds(1:T4,4) = y4;
odds(1:T5,5) = y5;
odds(1:T6,6) = y6;
odds(1:T7,7) = y7;
odds(1:T8,8) = y8;

total = repmat(uBound, size(odds,1), 1);%sum(odds,2);

for i = 1:size(odds,1);
    for j = 1:size(odds,2);
        if odds(i,j) == 0
            odds(i,j) = 100;
        end
    end
end


% probabilities
p = 1-(odds./repmat(total,1,size(odds,2)));
pTotal = repmat(sum(p,2),1,8);


% probabilities normalized
STARTDAY = 3; % June the 3rd
prob1716 = (1-(y1(1:T1)./total(1:T1)))./pTotal(1:T1,1); day1716 = STARTDAY:T1+STARTDAY-1;
prob1717 = (1-(y2(1:T2)./total(1:T2)))./pTotal(1:T2,2); day1717 = STARTDAY:T2+STARTDAY-1;
prob1718 = (1-(y3(1:T3)./total(1:T3)))./pTotal(1:T3,3); day1718 = STARTDAY:T3+STARTDAY-1;
prob1719 = (1-(y4(1:T4)./total(1:T4)))./pTotal(1:T4,4); day1719 = STARTDAY:T4+STARTDAY-1;
prob1720 = (1-(y5(1:T5)./total(1:T5)))./pTotal(1:T5,5); day1720 = STARTDAY:T5+STARTDAY-1;
prob1721 = (1-(y6(1:T6)./total(1:T6)))./pTotal(1:T6,6); day1721 = STARTDAY:T6+STARTDAY-1;
prob1722 = (1-(y7(1:T7)./total(1:T7)))./pTotal(1:T7,7); day1722 = STARTDAY:T7+STARTDAY-1;
prob1723 = (1-(y8(1:T8)./total(1:T8)))./pTotal(1:T8,8); day1723 = STARTDAY:T8+STARTDAY-1;

% plots
CF = 14;        %cutoff

subplot(2,1,1); hold on
plot(day1716(1:CF), prob1716(1:CF), 'o-', 'Color', [1 0.5 0.2] , 'Linewidth', 2); % SP
plot(day1717(1:CF), prob1717(1:CF), 'k*-', 'Linewidth', 1); % DE
plot(day1718(1:CF), prob1718(1:CF), 'o-',  'Color', [0.5 0.8 0.1] ); % NL
plot(day1719(1:CF), prob1719(1:CF), 'b*-'); % FR
plot(day1720(1:CF), prob1720(1:CF), 'r*-'); % EN
plot(day1721(1:CF), prob1721(1:CF), 'ro-'); % PT
plot(day1722(1:CF), prob1722(1:CF), 'g*-','Color', [0.0 0.5 0.2], 'Linewidth', 2); % IT
plot(day1723(1:CF), prob1723(1:CF), 'bo-'); % RU

legend('SP', 'DE', 'NL', 'FR', 'EN', 'PT', 'IT', 'RU', 'Location', 'NorthOutside', 'Orientation', 'horizontal');
title('Probability of a country winning the EURO 2012 (normalized): First Round');
ylabel('p'); axis([3 16 0.1 0.16])

subplot(2,1,2); hold on
% plot(day1716(CF+1:T1), prob1716(CF+1:T1), 'o-', 'Color', [1 0.5 0.2] , 'Linewidth', 2); % SP
plot(day1717(CF+1:T2), prob1717(CF+1:T2), 'k*-', 'Linewidth', 1); % DE
plot(day1718(CF+1:T3), prob1718(CF+1:T3), 'o-',  'Color', [0.5 0.8 0.1] ); % NL
plot(day1719(CF+1:T4), prob1719(CF+1:T4), 'b*-'); % FR
plot(day1720(CF+1:T5), prob1720(CF+1:T5), 'r*-'); % EN
plot(day1721(CF+1:T6), prob1721(CF+1:T6), 'ro-'); % PT
plot(day1722(CF+1:T7), prob1722(CF+1:T7), 'g*-','Color', [0.0 0.5 0.2], 'Linewidth', 2); % IT
plot(day1723(CF+1:T8), prob1723(CF+1:T8), 'bo-'); % RU

title('Probability of a country winning the EURO 2012 (normalized): Knockout Stage');
ylabel('p'); axis([17 30 0.15 0.5])







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1 comment

José Ramón Menzinger 8 months ago

Note: the country name code for Spain is "ES" and not "sp" ;-) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_3166-1